Methods and models in process safety and risk management: Past,present and future

The paper reviews past progress in the development of methods and models for process safety and risk management and highlights the present research trends; also it outlines the opinions of the authors regarding the future research direction in the field. Based on the open literature published in the leading journals in the field of safety, risk and reliability, the review covers the evolution of the methods and models developed for process safety and risk management. The methods and models are categorized as qualitative, semi-quantitative, quantitative and hybrid. The progress in the last few decades is discussed in the context of the past. Developments in the current decade formulate the basis of the present trends; future directions for research in these fields are also outlined. The aim of the article is to provide a historical development in this field with respect to the driving forces behind the development. It is expected that it will help researchers and industrial practitioners to gain a better understanding of the existing concepts. At the same time the aim is to provide direction to bridge the existing gaps through research and developments.     

Bending force prediction for dynamic roll-bending during 3-roller conical bending process

Cylindrical as well as conical cross-section structural parts are widely used in industrial applications worldwide. Such parts are produced from metal plates using many manufacturing methods. 3-roller conical bending process is one such process. In this process first the metal plates in specified blank shapes are given static bending in the rollers. Then the rollers are driven using motors for bending of the blanks under dynamic condition. During bending reaction forces will be there on the rollers. Forces acting on the rollers during the process are transmitted to the machine frame at the roller supports. In the paper an analytical model is developed for the prediction of force during the stage of dynamic bending. The model consists of various parameters like material parameters and geometrical parameters. Experimentation is carried out and the developed model is validated with the experimental results. Effects of various material and geometrical parameters are studied in the present paper. The present work can give insight in the process and can be helpful to the designers as well as to the researchers working in the area of metal forming.     

Microwave cladding: A new approach in surface engineering

Cladding is generally characterized by partial dilution of the substrate and hence formation of metallurgical bonding between the substrate and the deposits. Laser cladding is one of the most widely practiced surface engineering techniques. The present work mainly focuses on a novel development in surface engineering techniques in the form of microwave cladding. Clads of tungsten carbide (WC) based WC10Co2Ni powder on austenitic stainless steel were produced using microwave hybrid heating. Microwave clads were developed by exposing the preplaced, preheated powder for a duration of 120 s to microwave radiation at 2.45 GHz frequency and 900 W power in a home microwave system. Characterization of the clads was carried out in the form of microstructural and elemental composition studies. Investigations show crack-free interface revealing good metallurgical bond associated with partial dilution of the stainless steel substrate and full melting of WC particles. Typical X-ray diffraction results confirm presence of metallic carbides in the clad which is primarily responsible for significantly higher microhardness of the clad. Process mechanism has been discussed.     

动力风泵房循环水余热回收方案设计

介绍了动力风泵房每年有大量的工业余热为没经过处理直接排放,造成能源的浪费,以及其解决的思路:利用水源热泵吸收动力风泵房中产生的余热来加热水源,变成洗浴用水,从而达到节能减排的目的.     

A simulation study of mercury release fluxes from soils in wet-dry rotation environment

A simulative mesocosm study was conducted to evaluate the influence of wet-dry rotation on mercury（Hg） flux from soil/water to air and the distribution of Hg species in water as well as Hg chemical fractions in soil. Three types of soil were employed including two kinds of paddy soil, Typic Purpli-Udic Cambosols（TPUC） and Xanthi-Udic Ferralosols（XUF）, as well as the Alluvial Soil（AS） from Three Gorge reservoir area in Chongqing, China. The results showed that Hg fluxes in wetting periods were significantly higher than that in drying periods. It might be due to the formation of a layer of stable air over the water surface in which some redox reactions promote evasion processes over the water surface. This result indicated that more Hg would be evaporated from the Three Gorge reservoir and paddy soil field during the flooding season. Hg fluxes were positively correlated with air temperature and solar irradiation, while negatively correlated with air humidity and the electronic conductivity of water. Hg fluxes from AS and TPUC were significantly higher than that from XUF, which might be due to the higher organic matter（OM） contents in XUF than TPUC and AS. The reduction processes of oxidized Hg were restrained due to the strong binding of Hg to OM, resulting in the decrease in Hg flux from the soil.     

Development of a Dynamic Aquatic Model (DynA Model): Estimating Temporal Emissions of DDT to Lake Maggiore (N. Italy)

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.01.009 Background, Aims and Scope Most existing models used to describe the fate of chemicals in surface water and sediment generally consider a 'static scenario', in which a contaminant is discharged at a constant rate and environmental input parameters do not change during the simulation time. This approach is not suitable in environmental scenarios characterized by daily or periodic changes of several input parameters. The aim of this study is to estimate approximate emissions of DDT lo Lake Maggiore using a new surface water model, (DynA Model) that describes the fate of a chemical in a dynamic scenario. Methods The model is developed on the grounds of an existing and validated model (QWASI). A numerical solution was adopted to build the fully dynamic version of the model. Results and Discussion The model was applied to Lake Maggiore emitting DDT at a constant rate until steady-state was reached. Emissions were stopped and later sporadic 'pulse' emissions were added. This was done to calculate the amount of DDT needed to simulate concentrations close to those measured in water and sediments. This allowed the evaluation of the order of magnitude of emissions. An uncertainty analysis for sediment resuspension was also performed, given the lack of measured resuspension rates. Conclusion The model showed the time response of the Lake Maggiore system to varying emission scenarios and provided what are regarded as reasonable estimates of DDT emissions. The model demonstrated the importance of sediment-water exchange. Recommendation and Outlook In order to better calculate DDT concentrations the model should be run with different discharge scenarios to clarify the time trends of concentrations, possibly with the use of different sets of measured data (such as biota and sediment deposition/resuspension rates).     

在役压力容器的动态检测技术与研究进展

根据笔者多年声发射检测与评价技术的研究成果并综合分析不同发展阶段的有关文献，论述了压力容器结构完整性检测与综合评估的意义，分析其合理性和难度，并对这种动态检测技术在评价压力容器结构完整性方面的研究进展作了较全面的评述     

Legalizing markets and the consequences for poaching of wildlife species: the vicuña as a case study

Vicuña provide an excellent case study for examining the sustainable use of wildlife outside protected areas: the community-based conservation approach. Vicuña populations in the high Andes of Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Perú fell to a critically low level, but a Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) ban on trade in their fiber has seen numbers recover dramatically, and now live shearing of vicuña for a high-value international market is being promoted as a mechanism to secure both sustainable vicuña populations and local livelihoods. We used a dynamic optimization model to explore the consequences of legalizing markets, including the consequences for poaching which is critical in vicuña dynamics. Using parameters obtained from the literature and expert knowledge, we explored different scenarios for the Argentine region of Cieneguillas. Our results showed that the role of the international market is ambiguous; live shearing for an international market can provide the very best of outcomes for both vicuña and local people, with large herds generating high revenues. But an international market also creates a market for poached vicuña fiber; as a result, vicuña numbers risk once again falling to critically low levels, resulting also in minimal revenues from sale of fiber. The message for the international community is that if community-based conservation is not implemented carefully then its impact can easily be perverse.     

Sperm allocation in an uncertain world

Models of optimal sperm allocation are constructed using stochastic dynamic programming techniques, yielding predictions about sperm allocation when males mate sequentially, breeding time is finite, sperm stores are limited and females vary in quality. The models suggest that uncertainty of future reproductive opportunities should favour withholding of sperm, so that males tend to allocate less (for a given level of stored sperm) earlier in the breeding season. This effect is more pronounced the greater the variance in female quality. We also show that while allocation will be influenced by mate value, it is not necessarily optimal to allocate preferentially to high-quality females, since the benefits of a higher-quality mate may be offset by increased risk of rejection of sperm or higher sperm competition. The relationship between mate quality and level of allocation will depend strongly on the amount of remaining stored sperm, with males whose supplies are depleted being more likely to favour lower-quality partners. Received: 12 September 1997 / Accepted after revision: 28 June 1998     

Lake eutrophication management modeling using dynamic programming

Lake eutrophication problems have received considerable attention in Taiwan, especially because they relate to the quality of drinking water. In this study, steady-state river water quality and lake eutrophication models are solved using dynamic programming algorithms to find the nutrient removal rates for eutrophication control during dry season. The kinetic cycle of chlorophyll-a, phosphorus and nitrogen for a complete-mixed lake is considered in the optimization framework. The Newton-iterative technique is adopted to solve the nonlinear equations for the steady-state lake eutrophication model. The optimization framework is applied to Cheng-Ching Lake in southern Taiwan. Several nutrient loading scenarios for eutrophication control are studied. Optimization results for nutrient removal rates and corresponding wastewater treatment capacities of each reach of the Kao-Ping River define the least cost approach to lake eutrophication control. A natural purification method, structural free water surface wetland, is also suggested to save more investment and improve river water quality at the same time.